Nov 6, 2012

Happy Election Day!

UPDATE: I was right on the electoral winner, wrong on the numbers, and wrong on the popular vote.  Romney got walloped.  Count me as one of the people who didn't expect African-American, Hispanic, and youth turnout to be as high as 2008.  Turns out, it was.

Also, fun fact--Barack Obama is the first president since Andrew Jackson to win reelection with a smaller share of the vote than when he won it the first time.  Weird, huh?

Carrying forward the American tradition literally as old as the Republic itself, we get to go choose a leader today.  Even Civil War couldn't stop it from happening.  Be sure to take the time to get out there and cast your ballots!

Here's my guess, for the little it's worth, and because prognostication is fun.  I think Romney wins the popular vote by a slim margin (1-2%), but I think in the electoral game, Obama has the edge.  Romney fails to succeed in wooing enough of the Rust Belt, so while they teeter on the edge, Ohio and Pennsylvania go barely to Obama.  Wisconsin does the same.  Romney pulls Florida and Virginia, plus surprises everyone with New Hampshire and Iowa.  He also gets Colorado.  Obama carries Nevada.  In the end, by a squeaker, it's 271-267, Obama.

I can also see the distinct possibility of either an Obama electoral blowout (over 300 EV's), as predicted by the poll averages right now, or a surprise clear win by Romney (but I have a hard time seeing a route for him to get over 300 EV's).

UPDATED PREDICTION: Nothing to do with who will win, but what happens after.  If Obama wins, there will be at least one article in the next week or two asking whether incumbency is so powerful to make a challenge impossible in the modern era (after all, if he wins, then there won't have been a losing incumbent since 1992).

Basically, like everyone else, I just don't know.

Also, looking up the election of 1864 (during the Civil War), I found this hilarious poster (published by Lincoln's allies as a 'this-is-what-will-happen-if-you-elect-my-opponent' thing).  These things never change, huh?

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